The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely. Share We identified 1334 consecutive patients who presented to primary care with acute LBP; of these 353 subjects recovered before 6 weeks and entered the current study. The primary outcome measure was recurrence of LBP in the next year. Specifically, an episode of recurrence was defined in 2 ways: recall of recurrence at the 12-month follow-up and report of pain at the 3- or 12-month follow-up. Risk factors for recurrence were assessed at baseline. Pain intensity was assessed at 6 weeks, 3 months, and 12 months and recurrence at 12 months. Factors that could plausibly affect recurrence were chosen a priori and evaluated using a multivariable regression analysis. Recurrence of LBP was found to be much less common than previous estimates suggest, ranging from 24% (95% CI = 20%-28%) using "12-month recall" definition of recurrence, to 33% (95% CI = 28%-38%) using "pain at follow-up" definition of recurrence. However, only 1 factor, previous episode(s) of LBP, was consistently predictive of recurrence within the next 12 months (odds ratio = 1.8-2.0, P = 0.00-0.05). This study challenges the assumption that the majority of subjects will have a recurrence of LBP in a 1-year period. After the resolution of an episode of acute LBP, about 25% of subjects will have a recurrence in the next year. It is difficult to predict who will have a recurrence within the next year. Strøyer J, et al. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2008 Mar 1;33(5):546-54. doi: 10.1097/BRS.0b013e3181657cde. Spine (Phila Pa 1976). 2008. PMID: 18317201 Carragee E, et al. Spine J. 2006 Nov-Dec;6(6):624-35. doi: 10.1016/j.spinee.2006.03.005. Epub 2006 Oct 11. Spine J. 2006. PMID: 17088193 Grotle M, et al. Eur J Pain. 2007 Apr;11(3):290-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpain.2006.03.004. Epub 2006 May 4. Eur J Pain. 2007. PMID: 16677837 da Silva T, et al. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther. 2017 May;47(5):305-313. doi: 10.2519/jospt.2017.7415. Epub 2017 Mar 29. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther. 2017. PMID: 28355981 Review. Jones GT, et al. Arch Dis Child. 2005 Mar;90(3):312-6. doi: 10.1136/adc.2004.056812. Arch Dis Child. 2005. PMID: 15723927 Free PMC article. Review. Chang WJ, et al. PLoS One. 2023 Jun 29;18(6):e0287192. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0287192. eCollection 2023. PLoS One. 2023. PMID: 37384753 Free PMC article. Pocovi NC, et al. Trials. 2023 Mar 16;24(1):197. doi: 10.1186/s13063-023-07119-0. Trials. 2023. PMID: 36927497 Free PMC article. Clinical Trial. Wieland LS, et al. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022 Nov 18;11(11):CD010671. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD010671.pub3. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022. PMID: 36398843 Review. Lin CY, et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Mar 11;19(6):3324. doi: 10.3390/ijerph19063324. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022. PMID: 35329011 Free PMC article. Chen HY, et al. J Tradit Chin Med. 2022 Feb;42(1):140-147. doi: 10.19852/j.cnki.jtcm.2022.01.009. J Tradit Chin Med. 2022. PMID: 35294134 Free PMC article.