惠誉将旭辉列入负面评级观察名单

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class="article__header"><div class="page-layout page-layout--2__left-main-right"><div class="column__left"/><div class="column__main" dir="ltr" style="padding-right: 10.7rem; direction: ltr;"><p class="heading--6"><span class="">Rating Action Commentary</span></p><h1 class="heading--1" dir="auto">惠誉将旭辉列入负面评级观察名单</h1><p><a href="/zh-cn/region/china">浏览惠誉中国网页</a> Fri 30 Sep, 2022 - 5:27 AM ET</p></div><div class="column__right"/></div></header><div class="page-layout page-layout--2__left-main-right"><div class="column__left ta--2"><div class="social-icons ta--2"><a href="https://www.facebook.com/share.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022&amp;title=Fitch%20Places%20CIFI%20on%20Rating%20Watch%20Negative" target="facebook"><i class="fab fa-facebook-f"/></a><a href="https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022&amp;status=Fitch%20Places%20CIFI%20on%20Rating%20Watch%20Negative+https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022" target="twitter"><i class="fab fa-twitter"/></a><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022&amp;title=Fitch%20Places%20CIFI%20on%20Rating%20Watch%20Negative&amp;source=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022" target="linkedin"><i class="fab fa-linkedin-in"/></a><a href="mailto:?subject=Fitch%20Places%20CIFI%20on%20Rating%20Watch%20Negative&amp;body=Check out this site https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fitchratings.com%2Fresearch%2Fzh-cn%2Fcorporate-finance%2Ffitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022"><i class="far fa-envelope"/></a><a href="#"><i class="fas fa-print"/></a><i class="far fa-copy" title="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10214464" role="button" tabindex="0" data-testid="CopyId"/></div></div><div class="column__main" dir="ltr" style="padding-right: 10.7rem; direction: ltr;"><div class="RAC"><p dir="auto"/><p>Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong/Shanghai - 30 Sep 2022: 本文章英文原文最初于2022年9月30日发布于：</p><p><a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10214265" class="link--1">https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10214265</a></p><p>Fitch Downgraded CIFI's ratings to ‘B-’ from 'BB-', Places Ratings on Watch Negative</p><p>惠誉评级已将中资房企旭辉控股（集团）有限公司（旭辉） ‘BB-’ 的长期外币和本币发行人违约评级及其高级无抵押评级和未偿付票据的评级列入负面评级观察名单。</p><p>惠誉将旭辉评级列入负面评级观察名单的原因在于，旭辉宣布其旨在为天津一物业开发项目融资之投资信托产品的现金分配受到影响，目前正就该产品与发行人进行协商。</p><p>惠誉正在评估旭辉使用此前未披露的非标准融资安排可能会对其常规融资渠道、流动性和财务灵活性带来何种负面影响。如果旭辉未能稳定局面，惠誉或将其评级下调一个子级或更多。惠誉预计将于十一国庆节假期后进一步确定旭辉的负面评级观察状况。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">关键评级驱动因素</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>不确定性或将影响流动性：旭辉于2022年9月28日表示，其旨在为天津一物业开发项目融资之投资信托产品的现金分配受到影响，目前正就该产品与发行人进行协商。此外旭辉还表示，根据未经审计的估计，其持有逾300亿元人民币现金，其中多数为与集团的物业开发项目有关的资金，包括存放在指定银行账户的受限预售资金。</p><p>上述动态影响了金融市场信心，从而令旭辉的常规融资渠道受限。市场信心恶化体现为旭辉的股票和债券价格大幅下跌。</p><p>境外债务敞口较高：由于旭辉的境外债务敞口较高，惠誉认为其流动性压力较大。2022年上半年旭辉的短债中，境外贷款占40%，境外债券占11%，境内债务占49%。旭辉计划偿付将于2023年1月到期的3亿美元债券，并有6.55亿美元境外贷款将于2023年上半年到期（包括摊还部分）。除非旭辉届时能够解决融资渠道的问题，否则其在履行上述偿债义务方面将面临挑战。</p><p>ESG -集团结构：旭辉对合资企业和联营企业敞口较高，而这些企业的流动性或融资渠道较弱。这导致旭辉过去一年的现金流出量较大，这可能会进一步削弱该公司的财务灵活性。</p><p/><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">评级推导摘要</h3><p dir="auto"/><p> 2022年上半年，旭辉的权益销售额为330亿元人民币，与新城发展控股有限公司（新城发展，BB/负面）的400亿元人民币相近。旭辉的现金短债比为1.0倍，亦与新城发展相当。由于旭辉的大部分土地储备集中于高线城市，而新城发展的土地储备主要位于低线城市，因此旭辉的土地储备质量优于新城发展。但是，2022年上半年，旭辉的杠杆率超过55%，高于新城发展的34%。</p><p>惠誉已将旭辉的评级列入负面评级观察名单，其他举措视惠誉对旭辉使用此前未披露的非标准融资安排可能会对其常规融资渠道、流动性和财务灵活性带来何种负面影响做进一步分析而定。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">关键评级假设</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>本发行人评级研究中惠誉的关键评级假设包括：</p><p>- 2022年权益合同销售额减少35%（2021年增加7%）</p><p>- 2022年权益购地金额及建安成本分别占隐含销售回款的不足10%和45%（2021年分别为46%和28%）</p><p>- 2022年物业管理费收入增至50亿元人民币（2021年为40亿元人民币）</p><p>- 2022年租金收入增至13亿元人民币（2021年为10亿元人民币）</p><p>- 2022年房地产开发业务列报毛利率为16%-18%（2021年为17.5%）</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">评级敏感性</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取正面评级行动/上调评级的因素包括：</p><p>- 若未触发负面敏感性因素，则将旭辉的评级移出负面评级观察名单。</p><p>可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动/下调评级的因素包括：</p><p>- 旭辉未能稳住当前局面，流动性恶化或融资渠道受阻。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">最佳/最差情景评级分析</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>国际信用评级非金融企业发行人的评级在三年评级周期内最佳情景下的评级上调幅度 (定义为以正向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为三个子级，最差情景下的评级下调幅度 (定义为以负向衡量的评级转换的第99个百分位数，) 为四个子级。各评级类别最佳至最差情景的信用评级范围介于“AAA”到“D”之间。最佳和最差情景信用评级的评定基于历史表现。请访问<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579" class="link--1">https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579</a> ，了解关于特定行业最佳和最差情景信用评级方法的详细信息。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">流动性及债务结构</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>流动性趋于紧张：旭辉2022年上半年的流动性恶化，总现金减少30%，同时短期债务持平。惠誉估计，扣除托管账户中的预售资金后，旭辉2022年上半年的现金短债比降至1.0倍（短债包含资产支持证券）。</p><p>在中国房地产行业的下行周期中，该公司的销售回款减少，且持续对合资企业项目进行注资，导致其流动性更紧张。旭辉的中期流动性取决于境内融资渠道能否持续畅通，目前的不确定性似乎加大。</p><p/><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">构成评级驱动因素的关键信息来源</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>评级分析中使用的主要信息来源在下文列载的《适用标准》中已有披露。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">财务报表调整摘要</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>惠誉估算方法：旭辉2022年上半年200亿元人民币可用现金 = 1.17亿元人民币流通股投资的40% + 311亿元人民币列报可用现金 – 110亿元人民币受监管预售资金。惠誉将受监管预售资金计入资产净值的计算。</p><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">环境、社会与公司治理(ESG)方面的考虑因素</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>旭辉在集团结构方面的ESG相关度评分项得分为4分。旭辉对合资企业和联营企业的敞口较高，这对其信用状况产生了负面影响，并与其他因素一起构成本次评级的相关因素。</p><p>除非本节内容另有披露，ESG信用相关度评分最高为3分，表示ESG问题因其性质或受企业管理的方式而对信用的影响为中性或仅对受评企业的信用状况产生极小影响。如需了解惠誉ESG相关度评分的更多信息，请访问<a href="http://www.fitchratings.com/esg"/><a href="http://www.fitchratings.com/esg" class="link--1">www.fitchratings.com/esg</a>。</p><p>发行人简介 </p><p>旭辉总部位于上海，是排名前二十的房地产开发商之一。公司业务主要集中在长三角地区、环渤海地区、中西部地区及华南地区。旭辉于2020年开始将其物业管理上市子公司永升服务集团有限公司并表，截至2021年末旭辉持有该公司24%的股权。</p><p>注意：本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问，请以英文版本为准。</p><div dir="ltr" style="direction: ltr;"><div class="embedded-ratings"><div class="table table--1 table--bidi"><div class="table__overflow"><table class="table__wrapper" style="width: 662px;"><caption class="heading--6">Rating Actions</caption></table></div></div><div class="ReactTable"><div class="rt-table" role="grid"><div class="rt-thead -header" style="min-width: 448px;"><div class="rt-tr" role="row"><div class="rt-th rt-resizable-header -cursor-pointer" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 130 0 auto; width: 130px;"><div class="rt-resizable-header-content"><div role="presentation">Entity / Debt <i class="fas fa-sort"/></div></div><div class="rt-resizer"/></div><div class="rt-th rt-resizable-header -cursor-pointer" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 234 0 auto; width: 234px;"><div class="rt-resizable-header-content"><div role="presentation">Rating <i class="fas fa-sort"/></div></div><div class="rt-resizer"/></div><div class="rt-th rt-resizable-header -cursor-pointer" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 84 0 auto; width: 84px;"><div class="rt-resizable-header-content"><div role="presentation">Prior <i class="fas fa-sort"/></div></div><div class="rt-resizer"/></div></div></div><div class="rt-thead -filters" style="min-width: 448px;"><div class="rt-tr" role="row"><div class="rt-th" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 130 0 auto; width: 130px;"><input type="text" value="" style="width: 100%;"/></div><div class="rt-th" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 234 0 auto; width: 234px;"><input type="text" value="" style="width: 100%;"/></div><div class="rt-th" role="columnheader" tabindex="-1" style="flex: 84 0 auto; width: 84px;"><input type="text" value="" style="width: 100%;"/></div></div></div><div class="rt-tbody" style="min-width: 448px;"><div class="rt-tr-group" role="rowgroup"><div class="rt-tr -odd" role="row"><div class="rt-td" role="gridcell" style="flex: 130 0 auto; width: 130px;"><div dir="auto" style="white-space: pre-line;">CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd.</div></div><div class="rt-td" role="gridcell" style="flex: 234 0 auto; width: 234px;"><div dir="auto" style="display: inline-block; padding: 1.2rem; vertical-align: top;">LT IDR</div><div dir="auto" style="display: inline-block; padding: 1.2rem; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre; word-break: break-word;">BB- <span class="RW Neg"/></div><div dir="auto" style="display: inline-block; padding: 1.2rem 0px 1.2rem 1.2rem; vertical-align: top; white-space: pre-line; word-break: break-word;">Rating Watch On</div></div><div class="rt-td" role="gridcell" style="flex: 84 0 auto; width: 84px;"><div dir="auto">BB- <span class="RONeg"/></div></div></div></div><div class="rt-tr-group" role="rowgroup"><div class="rt-tr -even" role="row"><div class="rt-td" role="gridcell" style="flex: 130 0 auto; width: 130px;"><div dir="auto" style="white-space: pre-line;"/></div><div class="rt-td" role="gridcell" style="flex: 234 0 auto; width: 234px;"><div dir="auto" style="display: inline-block; padding: 1.2rem; 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bottom: 0px;"><div class="ps__thumb-x" tabindex="0" style="left: 0px; width: 0px;"/></div><div class="ps__rail-y" style="top: 0px; right: 0px;"><div class="ps__thumb-y" tabindex="0" style="top: 0px; ;"/></div></div></div><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Applicable Models</h3><p dir="auto">Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).</p><ul class="list-style--2"><bdi><li>Corporate Monitoring &amp; Forecasting Model (COMFORT Model), v8.0.3 (<a class="link--1" href="/research/corporate-finance/corporate-rating-criteria-15-10-2021">1</a>)</li></bdi></ul><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Additional Disclosures</h3><ul class="list-style--2"><li dir="auto"><a class="link--1" href="#solicitation-status">Solicitation Status</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="link--1" href="#endorsement-policy">Endorsement Policy</a></li></ul><span id="endorsement-status"/><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Endorsement Status</h3><div class="table table--2" dir="auto" style="margin-bottom: 1.5rem;"><div class="table__overflow"><table class="table__wrapper"><tbody><tr><td dir="auto"> CIFI Holdings (Group) Co. Ltd. </td><td dir="auto"> EU Endorsed, UK Endorsed </td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><footer><div class="paragraph-collapsible"><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">DISCLAIMER &amp; COPYRIGHT</h3><p dir="auto"/><p>All Fitch Ratings (Fitch) credit ratings are subject to certain limitations and disclaimers. Please read these limitations and disclaimers by following this link: <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS" target="_blank"/><a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/understandingcreditratings" class="link--1">https://www.fitchratings.com/understandingcreditratings</a>. In addition, the following </p><p class="link--1 link--3" role="presentation">Read More</p></div><div dir="ltr" style="direction: ltr;"><span id="solicitation-status"/><div><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Solicitation Status</h3><p dir="auto">The ratings above were solicited and assigned or maintained at the request of the rated entity/issuer or a related third party. 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These disclosures are updated on a daily basis.</p></div></footer></div><div dir="ltr" style="direction: ltr;"><div class="tag__wrapper"><div class="tag"><a href="/real-estate-homebuilding">Real Estate and Homebuilding</a></div><div class="tag"><a href="/corporate-finance">Corporate Finance</a></div><div class="tag"><a href="/corporate-finance/leveraged-finance">Corporate Finance: Leveraged Finance</a></div><div class="tag"><a href="/region/asia-pacific">Asia-Pacific</a></div><div class="tag"><a href="/region/china">China</a></div></div></div></div><aside class="aside column__right"><div class="block"><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Related Regions</h3><div class="scrollbar-container ps"><ul class="list-style--2 issuers"><li dir="auto"><a href="/zh-cn/region/china">浏览惠誉中国网页</a></li></ul><div class="ps__rail-x" style="left: 0px; bottom: 0px;"><div class="ps__thumb-x" tabindex="0" style="left: 0px; width: 0px;"/></div><div class="ps__rail-y" style="top: 0px; right: 0px;"><div class="ps__thumb-y" tabindex="0" style="top: 0px; ;"/></div></div></div><div class="block"><h3 class="heading--6" dir="auto">Issuer Content</h3><div class="scrollbar-container ps"><ul class="list-style--2 issuers"><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/zh-cn/corporate-finance/fitch-withdraws-cifi-ratings-12-10-2022">惠誉撤销旭辉的评级</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/corporate-finance/fitch-withdraws-cifi-ratings-12-10-2022">Fitch Withdraws CIFI's Ratings</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/zh-cn/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-cifi-to-cc-on-rising-liquidity-risk-11-10-2022">惠誉因流动性风险攀升下调旭辉的评级至‘CC’</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-cifi-to-cc-on-rising-liquidity-risk-11-10-2022">Fitch Downgrades CIFI to 'CC' on Rising Liquidity Risk</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/corporate-finance/fitch-places-cifi-on-rating-watch-negative-30-09-2022">Fitch Places CIFI on Rating Watch Negative</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/zh-cn/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-cifi-to-bb-outlook-negative-21-09-2022">惠誉下调旭辉的评级至‘BB-’；展望负面</a></li><li dir="auto"><a class="" href="/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-cifi-to-bb-outlook-negative-21-09-2022">Fitch Downgrades CIFI to 'BB-'; 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