1.
Business School, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China
2.
School of International Economics and Trade, Anhui University of Finance and Economics, Bengbu 233030, Anhui, China
3.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China
4.
College of International Economics & Trade, Ningbo University of Finance and Economics, Ningbo 315175, Zhejiang, China
摘要：
撤县设区作为行政区划调整的一项政策措施,对于缓解土地资源紧张、推动城市化进程、加快经济一体化方面具有重要意义,但其对区域经济发展的多维影响及其机制还有待进一步验证。以广东省为研究区域,利用79个县（市）2000—2015年的面板数据,运用双重差分方法系统考察撤县设区对区域经济发展的“净”影响。结果表明：撤县设区显著促进了区域经济发展,平均而言,撤县设区对经济发展的贡献为4.8%;撤县设区在珠三角地区效果更好,而在非珠三角地区不稳定;撤县设区的政策红利具有时间滞后性,一般在第三、第四年才开始显现;此外,机制分析发现,撤县设区后能够获得基建、规划、政策等的有力支持,增加财政收入和固定资产投资,有助于第二产业及其相关产业发展,并在增加就业和刺激消费基础上着力推动经济发展。
Abstract:
Turning counties into districts (TCID) is a policy of administrative division adjustment in order to alleviate the strain on land resources, promote urbanization and speed up regional economic integration. But its multidimensional impact on regional economy and its mechanism remains to be further investigated and verified. Therefore, under the help of Difference-in-Difference Method, the paper takes Guangdong province as the research area and uses the panel data of 79 counties (cities) from 2000 to 2015 to analyze and solve the above problems. The results show that: TCID significantly promotes the regional economic growth. Generally, its contribution to the regional economic growth rate was 0.48%; the policy effect performed better in the Pearl River Delta and less stably in other regions. The embodiment of policy dividend has time lag, and generally and emerges in the third or four year. In addition, TCID can get the infrastructure, planning, policies and other strong support. Meanwhile, increasing financial revenue and investment in fixed assets helps the development of secondary industries and related industries. Finally, it is effective to promote regional economic growth by raising employment rates and stimulating consumption. The policy recommendations of this article aim to, with the opportunity to reform the administrative system, organically combine the development of industry with the service industry, especially the productive service industry, speed up the optimization and upgrading of the local industrial structure so as to promote the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the regional economy.
Key words:
turn counties into districts (TCID),
economic growth,
Guangdong
广东省撤县设区的实验组样本"
|
年份
|
所属地级行政区
|
调整详情
|
类型
|
人口（万人）
|
面积（km
2
）
|
|
2000
|
广州
|
撤销县级番禺市,设立广州市番禺区
|
撤市设区
|
93
|
1314
|
|
2000
|
广州
|
撤销县级花都市,设立广州市花都区
|
撤市设区
|
60
|
961
|
|
2001
|
珠海
|
撤销斗门县,设立珠海市斗门区
|
撤县设区
|
32
|
801
|
|
2002
|
佛山
|
撤销县级南海市,设立佛山市南海区
|
撤市设区
|
110
|
1074
|
|
2002
|
佛山
|
撤销县级顺德市,设立佛山市顺德区
|
撤市设区
|
109
|
806
|
|
2002
|
佛山
|
撤销县级三水市,设立佛山市三水区
|
撤市设区
|
39
|
874
|
|
2002
|
佛山
|
撤销县级高明市,设立佛山市高明区
|
撤市设区
|
28
|
960
|
|
2002
|
江门
|
撤销县级新会市,设立江门市新会区
|
撤市设区
|
73
|
1260
|
|
2003
|
汕头
|
撤销县级潮阳市,设立汕头市潮阳区、潮南区
|
撤市设区
|
251
|
1256
|
|
2003
|
汕头
|
撤销县级澄海市,设立汕头市澄海区
|
撤市设区
|
83
|
403
|
|
2003
|
惠州
|
撤销县级惠阳市,设立惠州市惠阳区
|
撤市设区
|
51
|
1262
|
|
2004
|
韶关
|
撒销北江区、曲江县,设立韶关市曲江区
|
撤县设区
|
30
|
1651
|
|
2012
|
揭阳
|
撤销揭东县,设立揭阳市揭东区
|
撤县设区
|
107
|
694
|
|
2012
|
清远
|
撤销清新县,设立清远市清新区
|
撤县设区
|
69
|
2353
|
|
2013
|
潮州
|
撤销潮安县,设立潮州市潮安区
|
撤县设区
|
110
|
1093
|
|
2013
|
梅州
|
撤销梅县,设立梅州市梅县区
|
撤县设区
|
59
|
2503
|
|
2014
|
广州
|
撤销县级从化市,设立广州市从化区
|
撤市设区
|
60
|
1975
|
|
2014
|
广州
|
撤销县级增城市,设立广州市增城区
|
撤市设区
|
85
|
1616
|
|
2014
|
茂名
|
撤销茂港区和电白县,设立茂名市电白区
|
撤县设区
|
197
|
1945
|
|
2014
|
阳江
|
撤销阳东县,设立阳江市阳东区
|
撤县设区
|
48
|
1830
|
|
2014
|
云浮
|
撤销云安县,设立云浮市云安区
|
撤县设区
|
33
|
1185
|
|
2015
|
肇庆
|
撤销县级高要市,设立肇庆市高要区
|
撤市设区
|
79
|
2071
|
主要变量的描述性统计"
|
变量
|
TCID
=1
|
|
TCID
=0
|
|
样本量
|
平均值
|
标准差
|
样本量
|
平均值
|
标准差
|
|
ln
GDP
|
193
|
6.571
|
0.405
|
|
1071
|
5.830
|
0.419
|
|
ln
FA
|
193
|
13.957
|
1.091
|
1071
|
11.543
|
1.718
|
|
ln
L
|
193
|
4.975
|
0.308
|
1071
|
4.471
|
0.270
|
|
IR
|
193
|
61.207
|
12.723
|
1071
|
38.624
|
12.324
|
|
SR
|
193
|
31.778
|
11.815
|
1071
|
34.974
|
7.385
|
|
ln
RE
|
193
|
12.220
|
1.621
|
1071
|
9.681
|
1.717
|
|
ln
TRS
|
193
|
13.892
|
1.002
|
1071
|
12.439
|
1.044
|
|
ln
BI
|
193
|
12.069
|
1.062
|
1071
|
10.149
|
1.074
|
|
ln
BE
|
193
|
12.397
|
0.971
|
1071
|
11.167
|
1.061
|
经济效应的基准回归结果"
|
解释变量
|
被解释变量：ln
GDP
|
|
模型(1)
|
模型(2)
|
模型(3)
|
模型(4)
|
|
TCID
|
0.093
***
|
0.071
***
|
0.059
**
|
0.048
**
|
|
|
(0.026)
|
(0.024)
|
(0.023)
|
(0.022)
|
|
ln
FA
|
|
0.015
*
|
0.003
|
0.003
|
|
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.005)
|
(0.005)
|
|
ln
L
|
|
0.151
**
|
0.078
|
0.057
|
|
|
|
(0.073)
|
(0.053)
|
(0.053)
|
|
IR
|
|
|
0.010
***
|
0.009
***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.001)
|
(0.001)
|
|
SR
|
|
|
0.006
***
|
0.005
***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.002)
|
(0.002)
|
|
ln
RE
|
|
|
|
0.007
*
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.004)
|
|
ln
TRS
|
|
|
|
0.102
***
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.024)
|
|
ln
BI
|
|
|
|
0.016
*
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.008)
|
|
ln
BE
|
|
|
|
-0.011
|
|
|
|
|
|
(0.010)
|
|
常数项
|
5.565
***
|
4.732
***
|
4.646
***
|
3.532
***
|
|
|
(0.013)
|
(0.345)
|
(0.271)
|
(0.390)
|
|
N
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
|
时间固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
地区固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
F
|
257.453
|
297.582
|
488.097
|
426.566
|
|
(
P
)
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
|
调整后的
R
2
|
0.919
|
0.923
|
0.950
|
0.954
|
撤县设区的地区差异回归结果"
|
解释变量
|
被解释变量：ln
GDP
|
|
模型(5)
|
|
模型(6)
|
|
珠三角地区
|
非珠三角地区
|
珠三角地区
|
非珠三角地区
|
|
TCID
|
0.186
***
|
0.041
*
|
|
0.115
***
|
-0.005
|
|
|
(0.050)
|
(0.025)
|
(0.029)
|
(0.019)
|
|
ln
FA
|
|
|
0.004
|
-0.001
|
|
|
|
|
(0.008)
|
(0.005)
|
|
ln
L
|
|
|
0.117
|
0.011
|
|
|
|
|
(0.078)
|
(0.070)
|
|
IR
|
|
|
0.014
***
|
0.009
***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.003)
|
(0.001)
|
|
SR
|
|
|
0.010
***
|
0.005
***
|
|
|
|
|
(0.002)
|
(0.002)
|
|
ln
RE
|
|
|
0.002
|
0.005
|
|
|
|
|
(0.009)
|
(0.003)
|
|
ln
TRS
|
|
|
0.131
***
|
0.084
**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.043)
|
(0.032)
|
|
ln
BI
|
|
|
0.038
*
|
0.015
**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.020)
|
(0.007)
|
|
ln
BE
|
|
|
-0.041
*
|
-0.010
|
|
|
|
|
(0.023)
|
(0.010)
|
|
常数项
|
5.885
***
|
5.422
***
|
2.700
***
|
3.914
***
|
|
|
(0.031)
|
(0.012)
|
(0.606)
|
(0.488)
|
|
N
|
384
|
880
|
384
|
880
|
|
时间固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
地区固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
F
|
141.039
|
596.243
|
211.234
|
692.800
|
|
(
P
)
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
|
调整后的
R
2
|
0.885
|
0.936
|
0.947
|
0.964
|
安慰剂检验与时间效应回归结果"
|
解释变量
|
被解释变量：ln
GDP
|
|
模型(7)
|
模型(8)
|
模型(9)
|
模型(10)
|
模型(11)
|
|
Year-
5
|
0.068
|
0.012
|
|
|
0.014
|
|
|
(0.089)
|
(0.030)
|
|
|
(0.031)
|
|
Year-
4
|
0.022
|
-0.037
***
|
|
|
-0.037
***
|
|
|
(0.064)
|
(0.011)
|
|
|
(0.012)
|
|
Year-
3
|
-0.033
|
-0.013
|
|
|
-0.010
|
|
|
(0.072)
|
(0.032)
|
|
|
(0.032)
|
|
Year-
2
|
-0.015
|
0.025
|
|
|
0.028
|
|
|
(0.027)
|
(0.015)
|
|
|
(0.019)
|
|
Year-
1
|
-0.011
|
0.002
|
|
|
0.005
|
|
|
(0.035)
|
(0.023)
|
|
|
(0.024)
|
|
Year
0
|
-0.038
|
-0.008
|
-0.033
|
-0.007
|
-0.006
|
|
|
(0.034)
|
(0.022)
|
(0.035)
|
(0.022)
|
(0.022)
|
|
Year
+1
|
|
|
-0.004
|
-0.018
|
-0.018
|
|
|
|
|
(0.025)
|
(0.016)
|
(0.016)
|
|
Year
+2
|
|
|
0.021
|
-0.008
|
-0.008
|
|
|
|
|
(0.030)
|
(0.021)
|
(0.021)
|
|
Year
+3
|
|
|
0.075
***
|
0.031
|
0.031
|
|
|
|
|
(0.022)
|
(0.021)
|
(0.021)
|
|
Year
+4
|
|
|
0.080
***
|
0.030
**
|
0.031
**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.018)
|
(0.015)
|
(0.015)
|
|
Year
+5
|
|
|
0.087
***
|
0.044
**
|
0.045
**
|
|
|
|
|
(0.023)
|
(0.018)
|
(0.018)
|
|
控制变量
|
N
|
Y
|
N
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
常数项
|
5.581
***
|
3.400
***
|
5.581
***
|
3.431
***
|
3.418
***
|
|
|
(0.014)
|
(0.394)
|
(0.013)
|
(0.391)
|
(0.393)
|
|
N
|
1246
|
1246
|
1246
|
1246
|
1246
|
|
时间固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
地区固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
F
|
317.070
|
647.336
|
314.703
|
450.786
|
466.884
|
|
(
P
)
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
|
调整后的
R
2
|
0.920
|
0.955
|
0.922
|
0.956
|
0.955
|
机制分析回归结果"
|
|
(1) ln
SGDP
|
(2) ln
TGDP
|
(3) ln
FA
|
(4) ln
L
|
(5)
IR
|
|
TCID
|
0.282
***
|
0.076
|
0.233
|
0.125
***
|
4.768
*
|
|
|
(0.100)
|
(0.060)
|
(0.224)
|
(0.034)
|
(2.749)
|
|
常数项
|
11.742
***
|
11.624
***
|
9.807
***
|
4.501
***
|
36.266
***
|
|
|
(0.046)
|
(0.030)
|
(0.081)
|
(0.012)
|
(0.931)
|
|
N
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
|
时间固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
地区固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
F
|
103.711
|
485.995
|
116.482
|
12.135
|
11.792
|
|
(
P
)
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
|
调整后
R
2
|
0.841
|
0.918
|
0.858
|
0.321
|
0.212
|
|
|
(6)
SR
|
(7) ln
RE
|
(8) ln
TRS
|
(9) ln
BE
|
(10) ln
BI
|
|
TCID
|
-4.112
**
|
-0.156
|
0.119
***
|
-0.104
|
0.134
*
|
|
|
(1.948)
|
(0.181)
|
(0.039)
|
(0.066)
|
(0.074)
|
|
常数项
|
31.252
***
|
8.417
***
|
11.753
***
|
10.123
***
|
9.099
***
|
|
|
(0.728)
|
(0.149)
|
(0.022)
|
(0.026)
|
(0.037)
|
|
N
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
1264
|
|
时间固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
地区固定
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
Y
|
|
F
|
15.689
|
60.767
|
567.840
|
686.822
|
333.380
|
|
(
P
)
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
[0.000]
|
|
调整后
R
2
|
0.207
|
0.708
|
0.937
|
0.932
|
0.878
|
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