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The global economic outlook has improved and inflation has declined, but the recovery continues to be fragile and uncertain, says President Christine Lagarde. Inflation is still projected to stay too high for too long, and we are determined to bring it back to our 2% target.
Read the full IMFC statement International trade reshaped by warRussia has been forced to adjust its international trading activities since invading Ukraine. Following sanctions and voluntary boycotts, the country has reoriented its global trade towards the east, away from Europe. The ECB Blog sheds light on these shifts.
Blog post Ensuring price stabilityChief Economist Philip R. Lane talks to Cyprus News Agency about the economic outlook, monetary policy and the resilience of the European banking system.
Interview Quiz: Paper, plastic and PINsHow do people in the euro area pay for the things they buy? What projects are we working on to ensure the euro remains a stable currency for the digital age? Test your knowledge with our new Kahoot! quiz. Find out about the different means of payment and a lot more.
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12 April 2023
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
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12 April 2023
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12 April 2023
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5 April 2023
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
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5 April 2023
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WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
5 April 2023
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
5 April 2023
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
14 April 2023
Statement by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the forty-seventh meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee
5 April 2023
Lecture by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the University of Cyprus
1 April 2023
Introductory remarks by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 34th edition of “The outlook for the economy and finance”, organized by the European House – Ambrosetti
29 March 2023
Slides by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 39th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference
27 March 2023
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an event organised by Columbia University and SGH Macro Advisors
6 April 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Gregory Savva on 5 April
1 April 2023
Interview with Fabio Panetta, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, published as an article by Eshe Nelson entitled “Are Big Profits Keeping Prices High? Some Central Bankers Are Concerned.” in The New York Times, 31 March 2023
30 March 2023
Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Lluís Pellicer
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29 March 2023
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted on 22 March by Kolja Rudzio
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26 March 2023
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Daniel Murray
12 April 2023
Sanctions and voluntary boycotts have forced Russia to change its international trade since its invasion of Ukraine. The country has reoriented towards the east, away from Europe. This ECB Blog post sheds light on these shifts. It is the third entry in a series about the economic effects of the war.
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- JEL Code
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F51
: International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
30 March 2023
High energy prices have dented real incomes. How to allocate these losses is at the heart of recent negotiations between firms and workers. If both sides try to unilaterally offset any real income losses, this could trigger successive wage and price increases, and create risks of an upward spiral that could make everyone poorer.
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- JEL Code
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E31
: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
29 March 2023
What is the best way to absorb economic shocks? Some approaches favour private risk sharing, others, public risk sharing. In this ECB Blog post we argue that a combination of both offers the best protection for European citizens against poor economic performance.
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- JEL Code
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H12
: Public Economics→Structure and Scope of Government→Crisis Management
24 March 2023
The ECB is for the first time disclosing the carbon footprint of its own investment portfolios and the Eurosystem’s corporate sector holdings. Executive Board members Frank Elderson and Isabel Schnabel explain the progress made and the next steps needed to decarbonise the portfolios of the ECB and the Eurosystem.
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- JEL Code
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Q54
: Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
9 March 2023
Europe must speed up its green and digital transition. For that, we need to complete the Capital Markets Union to provide effective financing. This is the plea made by the five Presidents of the ECB, EIB, European Council, European Commission and Eurogroup in a joint post.
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13 April 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2806
Details
- Abstract
- Interconnectedness is an inherent feature of the modern financial system. While it con-tributes to efficiency of financial services, it also creates structural vulnerabilities: pernicious shock transmission and amplification impacting banks’ capitalization. This has recently been seen during the Global Financial Crisis. Post-crisis reforms addressed many of the causes of this event, but contagion effects may not be fully eliminated. One reason for this may be related to financial institutions’ incentives and strategic behaviours. We propose a model to study contagion effects in a banking system capturing network effects of direct exposures and indirect effects of market behaviour that may impact asset valuation. By doing so, we can embed a well-established fire-sale channel into our model. Unlike in related literature, we relax the assumption that there is an exogenous pecking order of how banks would sell their assets. Instead, banks act rationally in our model; they optimally construct a portfolio subject to budget constraints so as to raise cash to satisfy creditors (interbank and external). We assume that the guiding principle for banks is to maximize risk-adjusted returns gener-ated by their balance sheets. We parameterize the theoretical model with publicly available data for a representative sample of European banks; this allows us to run simulations of bank valuations and asset prices under a set of stress scenarios.
- JEL Code
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C62
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
C63 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computational Techniques, Simulation Modeling
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
13 April 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2805
Details
- Abstract
- Are central bank tools effective in reaching non-banks with no access to the lender-of-last-resort facilities? Using runs on mutual funds in March 2020 as a laboratory, we show that, following the announcement of large-scale purchases, funds with higher ex ante shares of assets eligible for central bank purchases saw their performance improve by 3.6 percentage points and outflows decrease by 61% relative to otherwise similar funds. Following central bank liquidity provision to banks, the growth rate of repo lending to funds by banks more exposed to the system-wide liquidity crisis was up to five times higher compared to other banks.
- JEL Code
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E58
: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
12 April 2023
OTHER PUBLICATION
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12 April 2023
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PRESS RELEASE
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14 April 2021
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5 April 2023
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5 April 2023
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5 April 2023
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5 April 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 314
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- Abstract
- In this paper we aim to provide a holistic understanding of the Initial Margin (IM) models used by Central Counterparties (CCPs) in Europe. In addition to discussing their relevance in terms of CCP risk management and their importance for the functioning of financial markets, we provide an overview of the main modelling frameworks used, including Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk (SPAN) and Value at Risk (VaR) models.By leveraging on publicly available data, we provide an up-to-date picture of current modelling practices for specific cleared product classes, as well as various trends in IM modelling practices in Europe. We show how IM model frameworks vary materially, depending on the CCP’s past choices and the products it clears. Despite a propensity to switch to VaR models, idiosyncrasies and differences across CCPs are likely to persist.We conclude by highlighting current and upcoming challenges and risks to CCP IM model frameworks and linking the current status quo with ongoing and upcoming regulatory work at European and international level.
- JEL Code
-
G15
: Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G19 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Other
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
3 April 2023
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the financial stability risks of investment funds active in euro area commercial real estate (CRE) markets. It finds that real estate investment funds (REIFs) have grown significantly in the past decade, and have a large market footprint in several euro area countries where the outlook for CRE markets has deteriorated sharply. In addition, REIFs are exposed to liquidity risk when they offer frequent redemptions, which could affect the stability of CRE markets. REIFs should therefore be subject to a common and comprehensive policy framework to reduce the liquidity mismatch and risks to financial stability.
- JEL Code
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G23
: Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
R33 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets
30 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2804
Details
- Abstract
- In sticky price models, the slope of the Phillips curve depends positively on the probability of price adjustment. I use a series for the empirical frequency of price adjustment to test this implication. I find some evidence that the Phillips curve slope depends positively on the repricing rate. My results support the implication from New Keynesian theory with Calvo pricing that the Phillips curve slope is a convex function of the frequency of price adjustment. However, at all observed values of the frequency of price adjustment, the empirical Phillips curve relation is much flatter than the New Keynesian Phillips Curve at standard parameter values would imply.
- JEL Code
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C22
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- Network
- Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA)
30 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2803
Details
- Abstract
- We study the effects of low short-term interest rates on the optimal portfolio allocation in Markowitz portfolios and Risk parity portfolios. We propose a measure of Portfolio Instabil-ity, gauging the amount of optimal portfolio shifts needed to respond to exogenous shocks to the expected risk and return of the risky portfolio assets. Portfolio Instability, i.e. the selling pressure on riskier asset holdings, is found to be stronger the lower the risk-free interest rate. Heightened portfolio instability in the presence of low rates is found to emerge through two channels both of which incentivise the build-up of large and leveraged risky asset shares during calm periods which need to be unwound in the event of higher market volatility: first, low rates (mechanically) augment the excess return to be gained by investing in riskier assets and second, they are found to dampen volatility of riskier assets in the portfolio. The inverse relationship between portfolio instability and the risk-free rates is found to increase the closer the risk-free rate approaches the effective lower bound. Counterfactual analyses of the behaviour of optimal multi-asset portfolios demonstrate that the sell-off in riskier asset classes during the Covid crisis in March 2020 was more severe than would have been in the presence of higher short-term interest rates.
- JEL Code
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C58
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Financial Econometrics
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
30 March 2023
MEP LETTER
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- This box provides updated estimates on the fiscal support provided by euro area governments in response to the energy crisis and high inflation, reflecting the March 2023 ECB staff macroeconomic projections. It also gives granular information on the design and timing of these fiscal policy support measures.
- JEL Code
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E62
: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- This box describes the ECB’s liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the seventh and eighth maintenance periods of 2022, from 2 November 2022 to 7 February 2023.
- JEL Code
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E40
: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- Market-based measures of inflation compensation and market-implied real interest rates contain important information for monetary policy analysis but are available for the euro area only for the period since 2005. However, since they are correlated with other macroeconomic and financial variables that are available for longer periods, it is possible to construct time series for market-based measures of inflation compensation and real rates going back to 1992, using a penalised regression approach. These time series can be used as an input into econometric analysis and for illustrating stylised facts and historical patterns.
- JEL Code
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C53
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- The box provides an assessment of the impact of the pandemic on the exports of firms involved in global value chains (“GVC” firms), based on firm-level data for France. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, GVC firms, defined as firms that both export and import, faced disruptions in their supplies from source countries. These shortages of intermediate inputs traded via global value chains constrained firms’ production and exports. The weaker export performance of GVC firms relative to other exporters coincided with the emergence of supply bottlenecks, which suggests that these disruptions were a key factor holding back the performance of firms involved in global value chains. Estimates in this box suggest that these supply-side disruptions had a significant downward impact on exports in the euro area in 2020 and 2021.
- JEL Code
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D22
: Microeconomics→Production and Organizations→Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
30 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- This box studies the impact that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy has on emerging market economies (EMEs) and analyses the factors shaping those spillovers. We use a local projections empirical framework to examine the ways in which EMEs’ macroeconomic and macro-financial variables respond to US monetary policy shocks identified at high frequency. In line with academic literature, our baseline results show that a surprise tightening of US monetary policy is associated with immediate tightening of EMEs’ financial conditions, after which industrial production and inflation decline, with that effect peaking after around 18 months. We find that heterogeneity across EMEs is shaped by macro-financial vulnerabilities and monetary policy actions at the national level: domestic macro-financial vulnerabilities clearly matter, amplifying EMEs’ sensitivity to US monetary policy shocks, while maintaining a prudent monetary policy stance helps EMEs to mitigate spillovers from US monetary policy.
- JEL Code
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C32
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
29 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2802
Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal policy constitutes a key tool for business cycle stabilisation next to monetary policy. In this context, having a well-suited macroeconomic model for analysing fiscal policy at a central bank is of primary importance. This paper documents the fiscal block of the ECB-BASE, which is a semi–structural model for the euro area developed at the ECB for projections and policy analysis. The set-up of the fiscal block ensures comprehensive coverage of the government sector and tight links to the quarterly fiscal accounts. Thanks to this design, it is possible to simulate the model with a wide range of fiscal shocks, which, as shown in the paper, have distinct propagation mechanisms. Having discussed the set-up and the potency of fiscal policy in the model, this paper also includes the following applications for fiscal policy analysis: counterfactual scenarios with alternative fiscal rules, assessment of fiscal policy conducted in the euro area in the past and stochastic fiscal projections.
- JEL Code
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C3
: Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E1 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General Aggregative Models
E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
29 March 2023
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2801
Details
- Abstract
- The bulk of euro-denominated cash is held for store of value purposes, with such holdings sharply increasing in times of high economic uncertainty. We develop a Diamond and Dy-bvig model with public money as a store of value and heterogeneous beliefs about bank stability that accounts for this evidence. Consumers who are sufficiently pessimistic prefer to hold cash. In our model, the introduction of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a store of value that is superior to cash leads to bank disintermediation as some depositors opt for switching to CBDC based on their beliefs. While CBDC partially replaces deposits, long-term lending decreases less than proportionally as remaining depositors are, on aver-age, more optimistic about bank stability and banks re-balance their portfolio accordingly. The appropriate calibration of CBDC design features such as remuneration and quantity limits can mitigate these effects. We study the individual and social welfare implications of introducing CBDC as a store of value.
- JEL Code
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E41
: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Demand for Money
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
29 March 2023
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 2, 2023
Details
- Abstract
- This box presents a stylised, model-based, general equilibrium assessment of the global economic effects of trade fragmentation. The focus is on a rather extreme scenario in which two hypothetical geopolitical blocs raise barriers to trade in intermediate goods, causing a relocation of supply chains to countries within the same bloc (“friend-shoring”). Using a model developed by Baqaee and Farhi, we find that economic losses (in terms of welfare, trade and prices) can be sizeable, depending on the degree of rigidities embedded in the model. Effects are also heterogeneous across countries, as small, open economies that are reliant on global value chains are more affected. The findings in this box suggest that trade fragmentation would be a lose-lose situation for all parties involved and leave the global economy more vulnerable to shocks.
- JEL Code
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F12
: International Economics→Trade→Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies, Fragmentation
F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
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会开车的小马驹 · 【歐洲國家有哪些】歐洲國家地圖全圖高清版大圖 1 年前 |